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Türkiye’de Nüfus Artışı ve Ekonomik Gelişme Arasındaki İlişki

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 313 - 329, 14.07.2023
https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.1296107

Öz

Nüfus artışının ekonomik büyümeye etki edip etmediği sorusu, literatürde uzun süredir devam eden bir tartışmadır. Sonuçlar kullanılan verilere, ülkeye, tahmin tekniğine, yaş gruplarına ve ülkede uygulanan politikalara bağlı olarak değişiklik göstermektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'de kişi başına düşen GSYİH ile nüfus artışı arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi 1980-2021 yılları arasındaki yıllık verileri kullanarak incelemektir. Amacımıza ulaşmak için öncelikle Johansen eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmış ve ardından Vektör Hata Düzeltme modeli kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, nüfus büyümesi ve kişi başına düşen GSYİH büyümesi arasında uzun vadeli nedensel bir bağlantı olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, nüfus artışının Türkiye'de kişi başına düşen GSYİH'yı olumlu yönde etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Aksoy, Y., Basso, H. S., Smith, R., & Grasl, T. (2015). “Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends.” Madrid, Spain: Banko de Espana.
  • Alper, F., Alper, A. & Ucan, O. (2016). “The Economic Impacts of Aging Societies.” Int. J. Econ. Financial Issues 6 (3), 1225-1238.
  • Barro, R.J. & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). “Economic Growth.” 2nd Edition, MIT, Cambridge.
  • Becker, G, Glaeser, E., & Murphy, K. (1999). “Population and economic growth.” American Economic Review, 89(2), 145-49.
  • Bloom, D.E. & Canning, D. (2008). “Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance.” Population and Development Review, 34, 17-51.
  • Bloom, D.E., Canning, D.& Sevilla, J. (2001). “Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition.” NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Choudhry, M. T., & Elhorst, J. P. (2010). “Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in China, India and Pakistan.” Economic Systems, 34(3). 218- 236.
  • Dao, M. Q. (2012) “Population and economic growth in developing countries,” International Journal of Academic Research in Business and the Social Sciences, vol. 2, no. 1, p. 9.
  • Darrat A., & Yousif Y. (1999). “On the Long-Run Relationship between Population and Economic Growth: Some Time Series Evidence for Developing Countries.” East. Econ. J. 25(3):301-313.
  • Dogan, M. (2011). “Türkiye’de Uygulanan Nüfus Politikalarina Genel Bakis.” Marmara Cografya Dergisi, 23, 293-307.
  • Ecevit, E., Çetin, M., Yıldız, Ö. & Doğan, R. (2021). “Does the Aging Population Become a Constraint to the Growth of the Turkish Economy? New Evidence from Time Series Analysis.” Erciyes University.
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J., 1987. “Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing.” Econometrica, 55(2), pp. 251–276.
  • Furuoka, F. (2005) “Population Growth and Economic Development: A Case Study of Malaysia.” Journal of Population and Social Studies 14, 47-66.
  • Hasan, M.S. (2002). “The Long Relationship Between Population Growth and Per Capita Income in Bangladesh.” The Bangladesh Development Studies, 28(3), pp.65-84.
  • Johansen, S. 1991. “Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models.” Econometrica. 59. 1551–1580.
  • Kuznets, S. (1967). “Population and Economic Growth.” Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.
  • Lee, H., Huh, H., Lee, Y., & Lim, J. (2013). “Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth: A Panel Analysis.” Seoul Journal of Economics, 26(4).
  • Menike, H. R. A. (2018). “A Literature Review on Population Growth and Economic Development”. International Journal of Humanities Social Sciences and Education”, 5(5): 67-74.
  • Moradi, M., &Uslu, N.C. (2020). “The Impacts of Population Aging on Turkey’s Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis with ARDL Model.” Journal of Business, Economics and Finance (JBEF), V.9(4), p.292-303.
  • Peterson, E. W. F. (2017). “The Role of Population in Economic Growth.” SAGE Open, 7(4).
  • Polat, M., A. (2018). “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyümenin ve Nüfus Artışının Ekonometrik Modellemesi: Ampirik Bir Çalışma Örneği.” Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt 4, Sayı 1, s. 205-228.
  • Rosado, J. A., Alvarado Sánchez, I., Galindo Km, G., & Vía, E. (2017). “From Population Age Structure and Savings Rate to Economic Growth: Evidence from Ecuador.” International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(3), 352–361.
  • Song, S. (2013). “Demographic Changes and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Asia.” Honors Projects, Paper 121, 1-35.
  • Suluk, S. (2021). “The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth: The Case of Singapore.” International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 11(12), 2385–2400.
  • Thirlwall, A. P. (1994). “Growth And Development: With Special Reference to Developing: with Special Reference to Developing Economies.” Macmillan International Higher Education.
  • Thirwall, A.P., (1972). “A Cross-Section Study of Population Growth and the Growth of Output and Per Capita Income in a Production Function Framework.” The Manchester School, 40, pp. 339-359.
  • Thornton, J., (2001). “Population Growth and Economic Growth: Long-run Evidence from Latin America”. Southern Economic Journal, 68(2), pp. 464-468.
  • Todaro, M. (2012). “Economic Development.” 11th Ed., New York, London.
  • Tsen, W.H. & Furuoka, F., (2005). “The Relationship Between Population and Economic Growth in Asian Economies.” ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 22(3), pp. 314-330.
  • Zahan, I., (2016). “The Long Run Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh.” BIGD Working Paper Series No. 36.

The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Development in Türkiye

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 313 - 329, 14.07.2023
https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.1296107

Öz

The question of whether population growth promotes or harms economic growth is a long standing debate in the literature. The results vary depend on the data, the country, the estimation technique, age groups and the practices in the country. The goal of this work is hence to examine the causal relationship among GDP per capita and population growth in Turkey, applying annual data between 1980-2021. To achieve our objective, first of all, Johansen cointegration test is performed and then Vector Error Correction model is applied. The results demostrate that there is a long run causal direction between population and GDP per capita growth. Also, the results show that population growth impacts GDP per capita positively in Türkiye.

Kaynakça

  • Aksoy, Y., Basso, H. S., Smith, R., & Grasl, T. (2015). “Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends.” Madrid, Spain: Banko de Espana.
  • Alper, F., Alper, A. & Ucan, O. (2016). “The Economic Impacts of Aging Societies.” Int. J. Econ. Financial Issues 6 (3), 1225-1238.
  • Barro, R.J. & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). “Economic Growth.” 2nd Edition, MIT, Cambridge.
  • Becker, G, Glaeser, E., & Murphy, K. (1999). “Population and economic growth.” American Economic Review, 89(2), 145-49.
  • Bloom, D.E. & Canning, D. (2008). “Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance.” Population and Development Review, 34, 17-51.
  • Bloom, D.E., Canning, D.& Sevilla, J. (2001). “Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition.” NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Choudhry, M. T., & Elhorst, J. P. (2010). “Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in China, India and Pakistan.” Economic Systems, 34(3). 218- 236.
  • Dao, M. Q. (2012) “Population and economic growth in developing countries,” International Journal of Academic Research in Business and the Social Sciences, vol. 2, no. 1, p. 9.
  • Darrat A., & Yousif Y. (1999). “On the Long-Run Relationship between Population and Economic Growth: Some Time Series Evidence for Developing Countries.” East. Econ. J. 25(3):301-313.
  • Dogan, M. (2011). “Türkiye’de Uygulanan Nüfus Politikalarina Genel Bakis.” Marmara Cografya Dergisi, 23, 293-307.
  • Ecevit, E., Çetin, M., Yıldız, Ö. & Doğan, R. (2021). “Does the Aging Population Become a Constraint to the Growth of the Turkish Economy? New Evidence from Time Series Analysis.” Erciyes University.
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J., 1987. “Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing.” Econometrica, 55(2), pp. 251–276.
  • Furuoka, F. (2005) “Population Growth and Economic Development: A Case Study of Malaysia.” Journal of Population and Social Studies 14, 47-66.
  • Hasan, M.S. (2002). “The Long Relationship Between Population Growth and Per Capita Income in Bangladesh.” The Bangladesh Development Studies, 28(3), pp.65-84.
  • Johansen, S. 1991. “Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models.” Econometrica. 59. 1551–1580.
  • Kuznets, S. (1967). “Population and Economic Growth.” Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.
  • Lee, H., Huh, H., Lee, Y., & Lim, J. (2013). “Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth: A Panel Analysis.” Seoul Journal of Economics, 26(4).
  • Menike, H. R. A. (2018). “A Literature Review on Population Growth and Economic Development”. International Journal of Humanities Social Sciences and Education”, 5(5): 67-74.
  • Moradi, M., &Uslu, N.C. (2020). “The Impacts of Population Aging on Turkey’s Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis with ARDL Model.” Journal of Business, Economics and Finance (JBEF), V.9(4), p.292-303.
  • Peterson, E. W. F. (2017). “The Role of Population in Economic Growth.” SAGE Open, 7(4).
  • Polat, M., A. (2018). “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyümenin ve Nüfus Artışının Ekonometrik Modellemesi: Ampirik Bir Çalışma Örneği.” Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt 4, Sayı 1, s. 205-228.
  • Rosado, J. A., Alvarado Sánchez, I., Galindo Km, G., & Vía, E. (2017). “From Population Age Structure and Savings Rate to Economic Growth: Evidence from Ecuador.” International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(3), 352–361.
  • Song, S. (2013). “Demographic Changes and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Asia.” Honors Projects, Paper 121, 1-35.
  • Suluk, S. (2021). “The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth: The Case of Singapore.” International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 11(12), 2385–2400.
  • Thirlwall, A. P. (1994). “Growth And Development: With Special Reference to Developing: with Special Reference to Developing Economies.” Macmillan International Higher Education.
  • Thirwall, A.P., (1972). “A Cross-Section Study of Population Growth and the Growth of Output and Per Capita Income in a Production Function Framework.” The Manchester School, 40, pp. 339-359.
  • Thornton, J., (2001). “Population Growth and Economic Growth: Long-run Evidence from Latin America”. Southern Economic Journal, 68(2), pp. 464-468.
  • Todaro, M. (2012). “Economic Development.” 11th Ed., New York, London.
  • Tsen, W.H. & Furuoka, F., (2005). “The Relationship Between Population and Economic Growth in Asian Economies.” ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 22(3), pp. 314-330.
  • Zahan, I., (2016). “The Long Run Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh.” BIGD Working Paper Series No. 36.
Toplam 30 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Sevgi Coskun 0000-0002-9561-7200

Yayımlanma Tarihi 14 Temmuz 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 13 Mayıs 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Coskun, S. (2023). Türkiye’de Nüfus Artışı ve Ekonomik Gelişme Arasındaki İlişki. Optimum Ekonomi Ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 10(2), 313-329. https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.1296107
AMA Coskun S. Türkiye’de Nüfus Artışı ve Ekonomik Gelişme Arasındaki İlişki. OEYBD. Temmuz 2023;10(2):313-329. doi:10.17541/optimum.1296107
Chicago Coskun, Sevgi. “Türkiye’de Nüfus Artışı Ve Ekonomik Gelişme Arasındaki İlişki”. Optimum Ekonomi Ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi 10, sy. 2 (Temmuz 2023): 313-29. https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.1296107.
EndNote Coskun S (01 Temmuz 2023) Türkiye’de Nüfus Artışı ve Ekonomik Gelişme Arasındaki İlişki. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi 10 2 313–329.
IEEE S. Coskun, “Türkiye’de Nüfus Artışı ve Ekonomik Gelişme Arasındaki İlişki”, OEYBD, c. 10, sy. 2, ss. 313–329, 2023, doi: 10.17541/optimum.1296107.
ISNAD Coskun, Sevgi. “Türkiye’de Nüfus Artışı Ve Ekonomik Gelişme Arasındaki İlişki”. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi 10/2 (Temmuz 2023), 313-329. https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.1296107.
JAMA Coskun S. Türkiye’de Nüfus Artışı ve Ekonomik Gelişme Arasındaki İlişki. OEYBD. 2023;10:313–329.
MLA Coskun, Sevgi. “Türkiye’de Nüfus Artışı Ve Ekonomik Gelişme Arasındaki İlişki”. Optimum Ekonomi Ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 10, sy. 2, 2023, ss. 313-29, doi:10.17541/optimum.1296107.
Vancouver Coskun S. Türkiye’de Nüfus Artışı ve Ekonomik Gelişme Arasındaki İlişki. OEYBD. 2023;10(2):313-29.

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