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DEMOKRASİNİN TÜRKİYE’NİN İHRACAT VE İTHALATI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 4, 99 - 111, 06.07.2011

Şakir Görmüş Hakan Hotunluoğlu

Öz

Türkiye’nin ihracat arzı ve ithalat talebini etkileyen faktörleri
belirlemek için yapılan çalışmalar genellikle Granger nedensellik testi, Vektör
Autoregresyon (VAR), Eşbütünleşme ve hata düzeltme modelleri (ECM)
kullanarak ithalat ve ihracat ile reel döviz kuru ve milli gelir arasındaki
ilişkilerin varlığını tespit etmeye çalışmışlar, sosyo-politik faktörleri ihmal
etmişlerdir. Yapılan uluslararası çalışmalar ise genellikle ihracat ve ithalatı
tahmin için modellerken birbirlerinden bağımsız olduğunu varsayarak tek
denklemli regresyon modelleri (OLS) kullanmışlardır.
Bu çalışmada, ekonomik, sosyal ve özelliklede politik (demokrasi)
faktörlerin Türkiye’nin 98 ülke ile gerçekleştirdiği ihracat ve ithalatı üzerindeki
etkisi 1981–2006 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler üç aşamalı en küçük kareler
yöntemi (3SLS) ile analiz edilmiştir. Lagrance Multiplier testi sonuçları sistemi
oluşturan denklemlerin hata terimlerinde değişen varyans sorunu olduğunu
ortaya koyarken Hausman içsellik testi sonuçları ihracat ve ithalatın arasında
eşanlı bir ilişkinin olduğunu ve doğru tahmin yönteminin 3SLS modeli
olduğunu göstermiştir. Sonuçlar ticaret yapılan ülkenin demokratik bir ülke
olmasının Türkiye’nin ihracatı üzerinde pozitif bir etki yaparken ithalatı
üzerinde bir etkisi olmadığını göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Demokrasi İhracat İthalat 3SLS Modeli

Kaynakça

  • Akbostancı, E. (2002). Dynamics of the Trade Balance: The Turkish J Curve. ERC, METU 6. International Conference in Economics, September, Ankara.
  • Anderson, J.E., Wincoop, E.V. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. The American Economic Review, 93 (1), 170–192. ss.
  • Aydın, M.F., Çıplak, U., Yücel, M.E. (2004). Export supply and import demand models for the Turkish Economy. Research Department Working Paper, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, No:04/09.
  • Baltagi, H.B. (2001). Econometric analysis of panel data. England: John Wiley & Sons ltd. West Sussex.
  • Bliss, H., Russet, B. (1998). Democratic trading partners: The liberal Connection, 1962–1989. Journal of Politics, 60 (4), 1126–1147. ss.
  • Breusch, T., Pagan, A. (1980). The LM test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239– 254. ss.
  • Carroll, B.W., Carroll, T. (1997). State and Ethnicity in Botswana and Mauritius: A Democratic Route to Development. Journal of Development Studies, 33 (4), 464-486. ss.
  • CEPII (2007). Centre Detudes Prospectives et Dinformations InternationalesFrench Resarch Center in International Economics. [Erişim adresi]: <http://www.cepii.fr> , [Erişim tarihi:11.12.2007]
  • Chan, K. S. (2002). Trade and Bureaucratic Efficiency. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 50 (3), 735-754. ss.
  • Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı (2007). Ekonomik ve Sosyal Göstergeler. [Erişim adresi]: <http:// www.dpt.gov.tr>. [Erişim tarihi:10.11.2007]
  • Dixon, W.J., Moon B.E. (1993). Political Similarity and American Foreign Trade Patterns. Political Research Quarterly, 46 (1), 5-25. ss.
  • Duc, C., Granger, C., Siroen, J.M. (2004). Trade and Democracy. An Empirical Investigation. AFSE Congress, Paris, September.
  • Dünya Bankası (2007). World Bank World Development Indicators. [Erişim adresi]: <http://www.worldbank.org/wdi>. [Erişim tarihi: 15.11.2007].
  • Erlat, H. (2006). Panel Data: A Selective Survey. First Revision. Discussion Paper Series No: 97 (04), August 1997, Ankara, Middle East Technical University.
  • Freedom House (2007). Political Right. [Erişim adresi]: <http://www. freedomhouse.org>. [Erişim tarihi: 19.12.2007].
  • IMF (2007). Direction of Trade Statistics. International Money Fund. [Erişim adresi]: <http://www.imfstatistics.org/dot>. [Erişim tarihi: 23.12.2007].
  • Khan, M.S., Knight, M.D., (1988). Import compression and export performance in developing countries” Review of Economic and Statisticts, 70 (2), 315-321. ss.
  • Kinal, T., Lahiri, K. (1993). On the estimation of simultaneous-equations errorcomponents models with an application to a model of developing country foreign trade. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8 (1), 81-92. ss.
  • Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23, 978– 992. ss.
  • Lutz, J. M. (2007). Democracy and Free Trade in Europe Between the Wars. The International Trade Journal, 21 (1), 53-83. ss.
  • Mansfield, E., Milner, H., Rosendorff, B.P., (2000). Free to Trade: Democracies, Autocracies, and International Trade. American Political Science Review, 94 (2). 305–321. ss.
  • Mayer, W., (1984). Endogenous Tariff Formation. The American Economic Review, 74 (5), 970–85. ss.
  • Milner, H., Kubota, K., (2003). Why the Rush to Free Trade? Democracy and Trade Policy in the Developing Countries. Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, Sept. Unpublished paper.
  • Morrow, J.D., Siverson, R.M., Tabares, T.E., (1998). The Political Determinants of International Trade: The Major Powers, 1907–90. American Political Science Review, 92 (3), 649–661. ss.
  • Olson, M. (1993). Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development. American Political Science Review, 87 (3), 567–76. ss.
  • Pincus, J. (1995). Evolution and Political Economy of Australian Trade Policies. In R. Pomfret (ed.), Australia’s Trade Policies, Melbourne, AU: Oxford University Press, 53-73. ss.
  • Polachek, W.S. (1997). Why democracies cooperate more and fight less: the relationship between international trade and cooperation. Review of International Economics, 5 (3), 295-309. ss.
  • Schonhardt-Bailey, C. (1998). Parties and Interests in the ‘Marriage of Iron and Rye’, British Journal of Political Science, 28 (2), 291-330. ss.
  • Singer, K.D., Small. M. (1994). Correlates of War Project: International and Civil War Data, 1816–1992. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.
  • Sivri, U. ve Usta, C. (2001). Reel Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişki. Uludağ Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 19(4), 1-9. ss.
  • Şimşek, M. ve Kadılar C. (2004). Türkiye’nin İthalat Talebi Fonksiyonunun Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile Eşbütünleşme Analizi: 1970-2002. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 5(1), 27-34, ss.
  • Yücel, F. (2006). Dış ticaretin belirleyicileri üzerine teorik bir yaklaşım,. Sosyoekonomi, 2006 (2).
  • Zellner, A., (1962). An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association,. 57 (1), 348–368. ss.
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., and Y. Shin (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74, ss.
  • Maddala, G. S. and S. Wu (1999). “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A New Simple Test,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631–52.

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 4, 99 - 111, 06.07.2011

Şakir Görmüş Hakan Hotunluoğlu

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Akbostancı, E. (2002). Dynamics of the Trade Balance: The Turkish J Curve. ERC, METU 6. International Conference in Economics, September, Ankara.
  • Anderson, J.E., Wincoop, E.V. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. The American Economic Review, 93 (1), 170–192. ss.
  • Aydın, M.F., Çıplak, U., Yücel, M.E. (2004). Export supply and import demand models for the Turkish Economy. Research Department Working Paper, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, No:04/09.
  • Baltagi, H.B. (2001). Econometric analysis of panel data. England: John Wiley & Sons ltd. West Sussex.
  • Bliss, H., Russet, B. (1998). Democratic trading partners: The liberal Connection, 1962–1989. Journal of Politics, 60 (4), 1126–1147. ss.
  • Breusch, T., Pagan, A. (1980). The LM test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239– 254. ss.
  • Carroll, B.W., Carroll, T. (1997). State and Ethnicity in Botswana and Mauritius: A Democratic Route to Development. Journal of Development Studies, 33 (4), 464-486. ss.
  • CEPII (2007). Centre Detudes Prospectives et Dinformations InternationalesFrench Resarch Center in International Economics. [Erişim adresi]: <http://www.cepii.fr> , [Erişim tarihi:11.12.2007]
  • Chan, K. S. (2002). Trade and Bureaucratic Efficiency. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 50 (3), 735-754. ss.
  • Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı (2007). Ekonomik ve Sosyal Göstergeler. [Erişim adresi]: <http:// www.dpt.gov.tr>. [Erişim tarihi:10.11.2007]
  • Dixon, W.J., Moon B.E. (1993). Political Similarity and American Foreign Trade Patterns. Political Research Quarterly, 46 (1), 5-25. ss.
  • Duc, C., Granger, C., Siroen, J.M. (2004). Trade and Democracy. An Empirical Investigation. AFSE Congress, Paris, September.
  • Dünya Bankası (2007). World Bank World Development Indicators. [Erişim adresi]: <http://www.worldbank.org/wdi>. [Erişim tarihi: 15.11.2007].
  • Erlat, H. (2006). Panel Data: A Selective Survey. First Revision. Discussion Paper Series No: 97 (04), August 1997, Ankara, Middle East Technical University.
  • Freedom House (2007). Political Right. [Erişim adresi]: <http://www. freedomhouse.org>. [Erişim tarihi: 19.12.2007].
  • IMF (2007). Direction of Trade Statistics. International Money Fund. [Erişim adresi]: <http://www.imfstatistics.org/dot>. [Erişim tarihi: 23.12.2007].
  • Khan, M.S., Knight, M.D., (1988). Import compression and export performance in developing countries” Review of Economic and Statisticts, 70 (2), 315-321. ss.
  • Kinal, T., Lahiri, K. (1993). On the estimation of simultaneous-equations errorcomponents models with an application to a model of developing country foreign trade. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8 (1), 81-92. ss.
  • Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23, 978– 992. ss.
  • Lutz, J. M. (2007). Democracy and Free Trade in Europe Between the Wars. The International Trade Journal, 21 (1), 53-83. ss.
  • Mansfield, E., Milner, H., Rosendorff, B.P., (2000). Free to Trade: Democracies, Autocracies, and International Trade. American Political Science Review, 94 (2). 305–321. ss.
  • Mayer, W., (1984). Endogenous Tariff Formation. The American Economic Review, 74 (5), 970–85. ss.
  • Milner, H., Kubota, K., (2003). Why the Rush to Free Trade? Democracy and Trade Policy in the Developing Countries. Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, Sept. Unpublished paper.
  • Morrow, J.D., Siverson, R.M., Tabares, T.E., (1998). The Political Determinants of International Trade: The Major Powers, 1907–90. American Political Science Review, 92 (3), 649–661. ss.
  • Olson, M. (1993). Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development. American Political Science Review, 87 (3), 567–76. ss.
  • Pincus, J. (1995). Evolution and Political Economy of Australian Trade Policies. In R. Pomfret (ed.), Australia’s Trade Policies, Melbourne, AU: Oxford University Press, 53-73. ss.
  • Polachek, W.S. (1997). Why democracies cooperate more and fight less: the relationship between international trade and cooperation. Review of International Economics, 5 (3), 295-309. ss.
  • Schonhardt-Bailey, C. (1998). Parties and Interests in the ‘Marriage of Iron and Rye’, British Journal of Political Science, 28 (2), 291-330. ss.
  • Singer, K.D., Small. M. (1994). Correlates of War Project: International and Civil War Data, 1816–1992. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.
  • Sivri, U. ve Usta, C. (2001). Reel Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişki. Uludağ Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 19(4), 1-9. ss.
  • Şimşek, M. ve Kadılar C. (2004). Türkiye’nin İthalat Talebi Fonksiyonunun Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile Eşbütünleşme Analizi: 1970-2002. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 5(1), 27-34, ss.
  • Yücel, F. (2006). Dış ticaretin belirleyicileri üzerine teorik bir yaklaşım,. Sosyoekonomi, 2006 (2).
  • Zellner, A., (1962). An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association,. 57 (1), 348–368. ss.
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., and Y. Shin (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74, ss.
  • Maddala, G. S. and S. Wu (1999). “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A New Simple Test,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631–52.
Toplam 35 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil tr;en
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Şakir Görmüş Bu kişi benim

Hakan Hotunluoğlu

Yayımlanma Tarihi 6 Temmuz 2011
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2010 Cilt: 24 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Görmüş, Ş., & Hotunluoğlu, H. (2011). DEMOKRASİNİN TÜRKİYE’NİN İHRACAT VE İTHALATI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(4), 99-111.

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