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BÖLGESEL TİCARETİ ARTIRMA ÇABALARINA YENİ BİR SOLUK: RCEP ANLAŞMASI, TEHDİTLER, FIRSATLAR

Year 2023, Volume: 27 Issue: 2, 377 - 394, 08.08.2023

Abstract

Sekiz yıl süren müzakerelerin ardından 15 Kasım 2020 tarihinde imzalanan ve 1 Ocak 2022 tarihinde yürürlüğe giren RCEP Anlaşması, ekonomik hacim ve kapsadığı nüfus açısından dünyanın en büyük bölgesel ticaret anlaşmasıdır. RCEP Anlaşmasının sağladığı tarife indirimlerinin ve menşe kurallarında yapılacak sadeleştirmelerin bölgesel ticareti olumlu yönde etkilemesi beklenmektedir. Zira RCEP ülkelerinin kendi aralarında var olan serbest ticaret anlaşmalarının öngördüğü menşe kuralları kaynaklı bürokratik işlemler, bunun yarattığı zaman kaybı ve ek maliyetler, bölgesel ticaretin artmasının önündeki en büyük engel olarak görülmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, RCEP Anlaşmasının bölgesel ticarette ve Türkiye ile olan ticaretteki potansiyel etkilerini incelemektir. Bunun için RCEP ülkeleri ile Türkiye’ye ait temel ekonomik veriler karşılaştırmalı olarak ele alınarak RCEP Anlaşmasının bölge ülkeleri için getirdiği yenilikler ile sektör ve eşya grubu bazında RCEP Anlaşmasının öngördüğü tarife indirimleri ele alınmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları RCEP Anlaşmasının bölge içi ticarete etkisinin olumlu olacağı fakat bölge ülkelerine karşı önemli derecede dış ticaret açığı veren Türkiye’nin özellikle kısa dönemde bu durumdan olumsuz etkilenebileceği yönündedir. Bu noktada Güney Kore, Singapur ve Malezya gibi üç RCEP ülkesi ile serbest ticaret anlaşması bulunan Türkiye’nin, bölge ülkeleriyle imzalayacağı yeni serbest ticaret anlaşmaları ile RCEP pazarına erişimi kolaylaştırması önemlidir. Ayrıca sadeleştirilen menşe kuralları sayesinde güçlenecek bölgesel tedarik zincirinin, bu bölgede yatırım yapan Türk firmalarının lehine sonuçlar doğuracağı vurgulanmıştır.

References

  • Asian Development Bank (2021). Asian economic integration report 2021: Making digital platforms work for asia and the pacific, Manila.
  • Ateş, E. (2022). Bölgesel kapsamlı ekonomik ortaklık (RCEP) anlaşması üzerine iktisadi bir değerlendirme. Doğu Asya Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5 (9), 44-70.
  • Bernanke, S. B. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98 (1), 85-109.
  • Bhaskar, A. ve Beghin, J. (2009). How coupled are decoupled farm payments? A review of the evidence, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 34 (1), 130-153.
  • DTÖ bölgesel ticaret anlaşmaları veri tabanı, https://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicMaintainRTAHome.aspx
  • European Parliament (2021). Short overview of the regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP), Directorate General for External Policies of the Union.
  • Flach, L., Hildenbrand, H. ve Teti, F. (2021). The regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement and its expected effects on world trade, IFO Institute.
  • Graziano, G. A., Handley, K. ve Limão, N. (2020). Brexit uncertainty and trade disintegration. The Economic Journal, 131 (635), 1150–1185.
  • Guiding principles and objectives for negotiating the regional comprehensive economic partnership, rcepsec.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/RCEP-Guiding-Principles-public-copy.pdf
  • Handley, K. ve Limão, N. (2017). Policy uncertainty, trade, and welfare: Theory and evidence for China and the United States. American Economic Review, 107 (9), 2731-2783.
  • İşcan, H. İ. ve Uzunses, F. (2022). Pandemi ve dünya ekonomisinde yeni arayışlar çerçevesinde bölgesel kapsamlı ekonomik ortaklık anlaşması ve Avrupa Birliği-Çin kapsamlı yatırım anlaşması: Bir ekonomi-politik tahlil, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 23 (1), 243-264.
  • Itakura, K. (2022). Impact of RCEP: A global CGE simulation. 2. Virtual Workshop for the ERIA Research Project on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), 25–26 January.
  • Itakura, K. ve Lee, H. (2019). Estimating the effects of the CPTPP and RCEP in a general equilibrium framework with global value chains, (Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland). Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP).
  • Jia, F., Huang, X., Xu, X. ve Sun, H. (2020). The effects of economic policy uncertainty on export: A gravity model approach. Prague Economic Papers, 29 (5), 600- 622.
  • Kimura, F. (2021). New phase of international trade policy 1: Mega FTAs are the key strategy. Discuss Japan: Japan Foreign Policy Forum, No. 63.
  • Kimura, F., Thangavelu, M. S. ve Narjoko, D. (2022). The RCEP and east asian regional integration, (Ed. Fukunari Kimura, Shandre Thangavelu, Dionisius Narjoko) Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Implications, Challenges, and Future Growth of East Asia and ASEAN, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Krol, R. (2018). Does uncertainty over economic policy harm trade, foreign investment, and prosperity?” Arlington, VA: Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
  • Nicita, A. (2021). An assessment of the regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) Tariff Concessions, UNCTAD Research Paper No. 73.
  • Nicita, A., Razo, C., Mott, G., ve Peters, R. (2021). A new centre of gravity, The regional comprehensive economic partnership and its trade effects, UNCTAD.
  • Park, C. Y., Petri A. P. ve Plummer G. M. (2021). The economics of conflict and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: RCEP, CPTPP and the US-China trade war, East Asian Economic Review, 25 (3), 233-272.
  • Park, I. (2022). Comparison of the regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) and other free trade agreements, (Ed. Fukunari Kimura, Shandre Thangavelu, Dionisius Narjoko) Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Implications, Challenges, and Future Growth of East Asia and ASEAN, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Petri, A. P. ve Plummer, G. M. (2020). East asia decouples from the United States: Trade war, COVID-19 and east asia’s new trade blocs, Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper.
  • RCEP Agreement Series, https://rcepsec.org/legal-text/
  • Rillo, D. A., Robeniol, M. R. D. A. ve Buban, M. S. (2022). The story of RCEP: History, negotiations, structure and future directions, (Ed. Fukunari Kimura, Shandre Thangavelu, Dionisius Narjoko) Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Implications, Challenges, and Future Growth of East Asia and ASEAN, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Rosenbaum, Y. C. (2018). RCEP or TPP? An empirical analysis based on global experience. Asian Politics & Policy, 10 (3), 427-441.
  • Sarma, N. (2020). Free trade after RCEP: What next for India? Observer Research Foundation Issue Brief, No. 353.
  • Schott, J. J. (2022). Which countries are in the CPTPP and RCEP trade agreements and which want in? Peterson Institute for International Economics. (piie.com)
  • Shimizu, K. (2021). The ASEAN economic community and RCEP in the world economy. Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies, 10 (1), 1–23.
  • Summary of the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement, rcepsec.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Summary-of-the-RCEP-Agreement.pdf
  • UNCTAD. (2020). RCEP agreement a potential boost for investment in sustainable post-covid recovery, Investment Trends Monitor.
Year 2023, Volume: 27 Issue: 2, 377 - 394, 08.08.2023

Abstract

References

  • Asian Development Bank (2021). Asian economic integration report 2021: Making digital platforms work for asia and the pacific, Manila.
  • Ateş, E. (2022). Bölgesel kapsamlı ekonomik ortaklık (RCEP) anlaşması üzerine iktisadi bir değerlendirme. Doğu Asya Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5 (9), 44-70.
  • Bernanke, S. B. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98 (1), 85-109.
  • Bhaskar, A. ve Beghin, J. (2009). How coupled are decoupled farm payments? A review of the evidence, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 34 (1), 130-153.
  • DTÖ bölgesel ticaret anlaşmaları veri tabanı, https://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicMaintainRTAHome.aspx
  • European Parliament (2021). Short overview of the regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP), Directorate General for External Policies of the Union.
  • Flach, L., Hildenbrand, H. ve Teti, F. (2021). The regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement and its expected effects on world trade, IFO Institute.
  • Graziano, G. A., Handley, K. ve Limão, N. (2020). Brexit uncertainty and trade disintegration. The Economic Journal, 131 (635), 1150–1185.
  • Guiding principles and objectives for negotiating the regional comprehensive economic partnership, rcepsec.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/RCEP-Guiding-Principles-public-copy.pdf
  • Handley, K. ve Limão, N. (2017). Policy uncertainty, trade, and welfare: Theory and evidence for China and the United States. American Economic Review, 107 (9), 2731-2783.
  • İşcan, H. İ. ve Uzunses, F. (2022). Pandemi ve dünya ekonomisinde yeni arayışlar çerçevesinde bölgesel kapsamlı ekonomik ortaklık anlaşması ve Avrupa Birliği-Çin kapsamlı yatırım anlaşması: Bir ekonomi-politik tahlil, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 23 (1), 243-264.
  • Itakura, K. (2022). Impact of RCEP: A global CGE simulation. 2. Virtual Workshop for the ERIA Research Project on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), 25–26 January.
  • Itakura, K. ve Lee, H. (2019). Estimating the effects of the CPTPP and RCEP in a general equilibrium framework with global value chains, (Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland). Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP).
  • Jia, F., Huang, X., Xu, X. ve Sun, H. (2020). The effects of economic policy uncertainty on export: A gravity model approach. Prague Economic Papers, 29 (5), 600- 622.
  • Kimura, F. (2021). New phase of international trade policy 1: Mega FTAs are the key strategy. Discuss Japan: Japan Foreign Policy Forum, No. 63.
  • Kimura, F., Thangavelu, M. S. ve Narjoko, D. (2022). The RCEP and east asian regional integration, (Ed. Fukunari Kimura, Shandre Thangavelu, Dionisius Narjoko) Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Implications, Challenges, and Future Growth of East Asia and ASEAN, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Krol, R. (2018). Does uncertainty over economic policy harm trade, foreign investment, and prosperity?” Arlington, VA: Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
  • Nicita, A. (2021). An assessment of the regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) Tariff Concessions, UNCTAD Research Paper No. 73.
  • Nicita, A., Razo, C., Mott, G., ve Peters, R. (2021). A new centre of gravity, The regional comprehensive economic partnership and its trade effects, UNCTAD.
  • Park, C. Y., Petri A. P. ve Plummer G. M. (2021). The economics of conflict and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: RCEP, CPTPP and the US-China trade war, East Asian Economic Review, 25 (3), 233-272.
  • Park, I. (2022). Comparison of the regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) and other free trade agreements, (Ed. Fukunari Kimura, Shandre Thangavelu, Dionisius Narjoko) Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Implications, Challenges, and Future Growth of East Asia and ASEAN, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Petri, A. P. ve Plummer, G. M. (2020). East asia decouples from the United States: Trade war, COVID-19 and east asia’s new trade blocs, Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper.
  • RCEP Agreement Series, https://rcepsec.org/legal-text/
  • Rillo, D. A., Robeniol, M. R. D. A. ve Buban, M. S. (2022). The story of RCEP: History, negotiations, structure and future directions, (Ed. Fukunari Kimura, Shandre Thangavelu, Dionisius Narjoko) Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Implications, Challenges, and Future Growth of East Asia and ASEAN, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Rosenbaum, Y. C. (2018). RCEP or TPP? An empirical analysis based on global experience. Asian Politics & Policy, 10 (3), 427-441.
  • Sarma, N. (2020). Free trade after RCEP: What next for India? Observer Research Foundation Issue Brief, No. 353.
  • Schott, J. J. (2022). Which countries are in the CPTPP and RCEP trade agreements and which want in? Peterson Institute for International Economics. (piie.com)
  • Shimizu, K. (2021). The ASEAN economic community and RCEP in the world economy. Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies, 10 (1), 1–23.
  • Summary of the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement, rcepsec.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Summary-of-the-RCEP-Agreement.pdf
  • UNCTAD. (2020). RCEP agreement a potential boost for investment in sustainable post-covid recovery, Investment Trends Monitor.
There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Erdem Bulut 0000-0001-6383-2849

Yüksel Bayraktar 0000-0002-3499-4571

Çağlayan Aslan 0000-0002-9907-5189

Publication Date August 8, 2023
Submission Date August 10, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 27 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Bulut, E., Bayraktar, Y., & Aslan, Ç. (2023). BÖLGESEL TİCARETİ ARTIRMA ÇABALARINA YENİ BİR SOLUK: RCEP ANLAŞMASI, TEHDİTLER, FIRSATLAR. Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 27(2), 377-394.
AMA Bulut E, Bayraktar Y, Aslan Ç. BÖLGESEL TİCARETİ ARTIRMA ÇABALARINA YENİ BİR SOLUK: RCEP ANLAŞMASI, TEHDİTLER, FIRSATLAR. Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi. August 2023;27(2):377-394.
Chicago Bulut, Erdem, Yüksel Bayraktar, and Çağlayan Aslan. “BÖLGESEL TİCARETİ ARTIRMA ÇABALARINA YENİ BİR SOLUK: RCEP ANLAŞMASI, TEHDİTLER, FIRSATLAR”. Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 27, no. 2 (August 2023): 377-94.
EndNote Bulut E, Bayraktar Y, Aslan Ç (August 1, 2023) BÖLGESEL TİCARETİ ARTIRMA ÇABALARINA YENİ BİR SOLUK: RCEP ANLAŞMASI, TEHDİTLER, FIRSATLAR. Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 27 2 377–394.
IEEE E. Bulut, Y. Bayraktar, and Ç. Aslan, “BÖLGESEL TİCARETİ ARTIRMA ÇABALARINA YENİ BİR SOLUK: RCEP ANLAŞMASI, TEHDİTLER, FIRSATLAR”, Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 377–394, 2023.
ISNAD Bulut, Erdem et al. “BÖLGESEL TİCARETİ ARTIRMA ÇABALARINA YENİ BİR SOLUK: RCEP ANLAŞMASI, TEHDİTLER, FIRSATLAR”. Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 27/2 (August 2023), 377-394.
JAMA Bulut E, Bayraktar Y, Aslan Ç. BÖLGESEL TİCARETİ ARTIRMA ÇABALARINA YENİ BİR SOLUK: RCEP ANLAŞMASI, TEHDİTLER, FIRSATLAR. Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi. 2023;27:377–394.
MLA Bulut, Erdem et al. “BÖLGESEL TİCARETİ ARTIRMA ÇABALARINA YENİ BİR SOLUK: RCEP ANLAŞMASI, TEHDİTLER, FIRSATLAR”. Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 27, no. 2, 2023, pp. 377-94.
Vancouver Bulut E, Bayraktar Y, Aslan Ç. BÖLGESEL TİCARETİ ARTIRMA ÇABALARINA YENİ BİR SOLUK: RCEP ANLAŞMASI, TEHDİTLER, FIRSATLAR. Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi. 2023;27(2):377-94.